Why I Used Econometrics Instead of ML to Estimate Export Potential — And What I Learned Implementing It
In 2020, I was handed a PDF — an ILO working paper titled Spotting Export Potential and Implications for Employment in Developing Countries (Cheong, Decreux & Spies, 2018) — and asked to turn it into a working algorithm.
The paper describes a methodology developed by the International Trade Centre to identify a country’s unrealized export opportunities, and then estimate how many jobs realizing those opportunities would create. Across six developing countries. At the product-market-sector level.