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2026

2025

Automatic Dip Detection in Time Series: A Statistical Approach

Monitoring availability metrics at scale creates a familiar problem: you have a time series, you need to know when it drops, and you need to know this automatically — without someone staring at a dashboard. This post walks through a statistical algorithm I built to do exactly that. It detects dips in any continuous metric (availability, reachability, error rate) and returns precise start and end timestamps for each event. No ML required — just a modified z-score, two rolling windows, and a few transition rules.

Traffic-Based Customer Segmentation: A Practical Approach with Quantile Bucketing and k-NN Anomaly Detection

Customer segmentation is one of those problems that sounds straightforward until you actually sit down with the data. In this post I’ll walk through an approach I built for segmenting customers based on their HTTP traffic patterns — the kind of traffic data that tells you not just how much a customer uses a service, but how they use it.

Why I Used Econometrics Instead of ML to Estimate Export Potential — And What I Learned Implementing It

In 2020, I was handed a PDF — an ILO working paper titled Spotting Export Potential and Implications for Employment in Developing Countries (Cheong, Decreux & Spies, 2018) — and asked to turn it into a working algorithm. The paper describes a methodology developed by the International Trade Centre to identify a country’s unrealized export opportunities, and then estimate how many jobs realizing those opportunities would create. Across six developing countries. At the product-market-sector level.